Based on LTA’s press release, the total COE for August – October 2019 quota period will fall by 17.7% as compared to the previous quarter (20,850, down from the 25,347); Refer to Tables A & B ). Unfortunately, this means that all car buyers will only have a significantly smaller supply of COEs this quarter. As shown in Tables A & B, there will be a decrease in the number of COEs issued all throughout the categories.

For Category A (cars up to 1,600cc and 130bhp) alone, the COE supply suffers a substantial drop of 25.8% (6,338, down from the 8,546). While Category B (cars above 1,600cc or 130bhp) is lower by the preceding quarter’s 2,083 a month (8.6% down, previously 2,278 a month; Refer to Table C ).

The COE quota for commercial vehicles (Category C) will be hit most severely, by an overwhelming 27.3% to just 1,699 (from 2,337) COEs this quarter. Motorcycle buyers will have 1,477 COEs a month, or 17.7% fewer (from 1,794 a month).

Notably, Category E vehicles (all except motorcycles) had the least shrinkage, a quota of 2,129, with an average monthly quota of 709 (down by 5.3%).

According to some industry experts, the wearying consumer sentiment on the back of slower economic growth should alleviate the upward pressure on prices that a small quota typically causes. Another factor to note is the number of car buyers keeping their cars beyond 10 years (COE Renewal). Hence, this causes the replacement demand to be lower.

Below is a graphical representation of the COE Bidding Exercises Results for the past 6 months.

Should you wish to do a deep-dive comparison, please refer to Tables A, B & C below.

TABLE A – COE QUOTA FROM AUGUST TO OCTOBER 2019

 

VEHICLE CATEGORY		CATEGORY A	CATEGORY B	CATEGORY C	CATEGORY D	CATEGORY E	TOTAL
		Cars (Up to 1,600cc and maximum power output not exceeding 97kW)	Cars (Above 1,600cc or maximum power output above 97kW)	Goods Vehicles & Buses	Motorcycles	Open (All except motorcycles)
A1)	Vehicle population as at 31 Dec 2018	314,694	300,743	152,129	136,906	–	904,472
A2)	Net increase allowed per quarter [Cat C Only] [0.25% x vehicle population / 4] (a)	–	–	95	–	– (b)	95
(A)	Increase in Vehicle Population	0	0	95	0	0	95
B1)	Total vehicle deregistrations (from Apr to Jun 2019)	7,041	6,939	3,798	3,976	–	21,754
B2)	Contribution of de-registrations to Category E (10% of B1) (c)	-704	-693	-379	– (d)	1,776	–
(B)	Replacements of Deregistered Vehicles	6,337	6,246	3,419	3,976	1,776	21,754
C1)	Adjustments for change in taxi population (e)	–	–	–	–	552	552
C2)	Adjustments for replacements under Early Turnover Scheme (f)	–	–	-1,818	–	-201	-2,019
C3)	Expired COEs (g)	1	5	3	457	2	468
(C)	Adjustments	1	5	-1,815	457	353	-999
Total Quota for Aug 2019 to Oct 2019 Bidding Exercises (A + B + C)		6,338	6,251	1,699	4,433	2,129	20,850
Average Monthly Quota for Aug 2019 to Oct 2019 Bidding Exercises		2,112	2,083	566	1,477	709	6,947
Monthly Quota for May 2019 to Jul 2019 Bidding Exercises		2,848	2,278	779	1,794	749	8,448

 

TABLE B – COE QUOTA FROM MAY TO JULY 2019

VEHICLE CATEGORY		CATEGORY A	CATEGORY B	CATEGORY C	CATEGORY D	CATEGORY E	TOTAL
		Cars (Up to 1,600cc and maximum power output not exceeding 97kW)	Cars (Above 1,600cc or maximum power output above 97kW)	Goods Vehicles & Buses	Motorcycles	Open (All except motorcycles)
A1)	Vehicle population as at 31 Dec 2018	314,694	300,743	152,129	136,906	–	904,472
A2)	Net increase allowed per quarter [Cat C Only] [0.25% x vehicle population / 4] (a)	–	–	95	–	– (b)	95
(A)	Increase in Vehicle Population	0	0	95	0	0	95
B1)	Total vehicle deregistrations (from Jan to Mar 2019)	9,485	7,585	4,004	4,506	–	25,580
B2)	Contribution of de-registrations to Category E (10% of B1) (c)	-948	-758	-400	– (d)	2,106	–
(B)	Replacements of Deregistered Vehicles	8,537	6,827	3,604	4,506	2,106	25,580
C1)	Adjustments for change in taxi population (e)	–	–	–	–	291	291
C2)	Adjustments for replacements under Early Turnover Scheme (f)	–	–	-1,364	–	-151	-1,515
C3)	Expired COEs (g)	9	7	2	877	1	896
(C)	Adjustments	9	7	-1,362	877	141	-328
Total Quota for May 2019 to Jul 2019 Bidding Exercises (A + B + C)		8,546	6,834	2,337	5,383	2,247	25,347
Average Monthly Quota for May 2019 to Jul 2019 Bidding Exercises		2,848	2,278	779	1,794	749	8,448
Monthly Quota for Feb 2019 to Apr 2019 Bidding Exercises		3,300	2,399	608	1,651	794	8,752

TABLE C – AVERAGE MONTHLY COE COMPARISON (AUGUST – OCTOBER VS. MAY – JULY 2019)

 

	August – October 2019	May – July 2019
CAT A	2,112	2,848
CAT B	2,083	2,278
CAT C	566	779
CAT D	1,477	1,794
CAT E	709	749
Total	6,947	8,448